Recently, I wrote an article alerting readers of the upcoming Russell rebalancing of its indexes. Since that article was written, there have been major announcements from Sirius XM (SIRI) regarding not only its introduction of an Apple (AAPL) iPhone and iPod Touch application but with it news that the app itself is on track to reach historical download numbers at Apple’s iTunes store .
In an ironic twist, Sirius XM shares actually declined on the initial news of the Apple application release. Much ado was made of the fact that Howard Stern’s program is conspicuously absent from the application, leading some to speculate that the sell off was in some way related to this insignificant issue. Those subscribing to that theory however, are clueless. If Howard’s program had been included, these same financial news reporters, and I use the term loosely, would have been interviewing every religious group in the United States calling for bans on Apple products. No. We know that game. We’ve been around a while now.
The initial Russell reconstitution list was issued on June 12. Most of the “smart money” or mutual funds that track the index had already anticipated the fact that stocks such as Sirius XM are going to be removed this year. A more likely scenario is that these index funds would have already begun selling the equity short against the box, rather than join in an all encompassing, every man for himself “dump fest” on June 26th; the actual day of effect for the Russell rebalancing to occur.
The announcement of the app created an ideal situation for these fund mangers to sell their SIRI positions into the strength that had been created on the previous days run-up on the initial news. In fact, trading volume rose to 10 times its average daily share volume that day as the stock gave back all of its gains from the previous days session.
So what’s next? It looks to me as if the so called smart money may have pulled the trigger a bit too soon. What they failed to foresee was the popularity of the application. Popularity I might add, that is in spite of the perceived lack of Howard Stern. As Sirius XM’s Apple app is continuously downloaded around the globe, renewed interest in the equity is sure to build as we witnessed on last Friday’s episode of Fast Money on CNBC.
As for the Russell rebalance. It appears to me that the damage has already been done. The index funds are out and happy to have missed the next leg up. With those potential sales off the table, it clears the way for Sirius XM stock to rise past resistance, while potentially leading to new highs. Last weeks options volume spike of 2.50 calls may prove to be significant in the coming week.
Position: Long SIRI













































Brandon,
Glad to see you were talked off the ledge with regard to the Russell delisting possibility. Did you ever get an actual count on shares that would be involved in the sell off for the funds…there are some who still maintain this is a trigger to sub .30 cent level and support to the stock price. Something I vehemently disagree with!
It looks like the weker hands are giving up their shares this a.m. with a resistence at .37 so far. I pulled my sell since this debt sale may be looked at as much more positive, rather than the knee-jerk reaction that I almost joined up in. I think if we get to the opening at .38, we might have a very good day here.
Brandon-
How important is this .38 level. It looks like about where the 50 and 200 day moving average are crossing. If we can hold this, how high can we go.
Can you comment.
@sxminvestor
I’ll bite…1.15
BRANDON IMPORTANT!:
Hey Brandon,
The I-Phone App is not being downloaded internationally as far as I know. It seems it’s only available in the US section of the I-Tunes store. I heard a lot of Canadians on twitter complaining about that, and it seems the I-Phone app isn’t global yet. This makes the number of downloads even more astounding because the #1 App (right before Sirius XM App) called Paper Toss IS available in many other countries through the I-Tunes app store. AND the Sirius App is actually gaining on it fast. As yesterday we had less than 15,000 ratings, today we have more than 20,000. The Paper Toss Game though very popular is not gaining as many ratings with the frequency that the Sirius App is.
Feel free to correct me if you know for sure the Sirius App is global now and people can download it, but as far as I know and from the many, many angry twitts, it seems it’s not.
@thejohnmalkovich
You are absolutely wrong. We have confirmed users in Europe, Korea and England…
I hope that’s the case, but then why when I go to the I-Tunes store and I change from USA to another country and the app is nowhere to be found.
And if you search twitter, why are numerous Canadians saying they can’t get the app:
http://search.twitter.com/search?q=sirius+app+Canada
I also went to the I-Tunes Korean section and searched sirius and didn’t find the app. Explain. Give me a link or some kind of proof of what you are saying.
@thejohnmalkovich
When signing up for the initial service, you get a message on the iPhone that reads:
…for international registrations call (toll) 469-221-5200
You want proof? Call the number. I did. We have written at least 3 articles here on Satwaves regarding this…
Brandon,
But how are people going to get that sign up message on the I-Phone when they can’t download the app? And why then, are all the twitter messages from Canada saying that they can’t get the app? I’ve not seen one Canadian tweet that said they were able to get the Sirius I-Phone app.
PS You said you called, but you were put on hold for 10 minutes and you hung up. Did you ever call back?
This is not rocket science..pick up the phone and call..I did…
The app is available worldwide, as id the premium service on desktops and laptops. You not wanting it to be so changes nothing.
As for why you see what you see…look at the app comments. If you haven’t figured it out yet there a lot of people who want sirius xm to fail…
Don’t believe everything you read…
Pick up the phone and call…
Rocket Science doesn’t intimidate me, I’m a computer programmer.
You didn’t answer my questions. Read my posts again.
I did answer your question. You want proof. CALL the damn number. Even a computer programmer can figure out how to do this!
If all else fails, here is an article written 4 days ago describing where it can be found…I know its not written in HTML, but it’s still pretty easy to understand…
http://satwaves.com/blog/2009/06/18/sirius-xm-iphone-app-first-impressions/
You are not helping your case, Brandon.
Loosing your temper with your readers is not going to make them believe what you are saying – you are a weak man. I liked your articles, but I’ve lost respect for them since you can’t even prove a few simple points. If you can’t prove it to me, a Sirius shareholder with close to 100k shares, how are you going to prove it to the bashers? And saying that all of the twitts are fake, that’s just ridiculous and very paranoid. You still haven’t answered my questions. You can write, but can you read?
@thejohnmalkovich
Hey Asshole… you are not listening. Call the number.
If you are trying to help Brandon, you are not.
Apparently the trick for Skype on this page will allow Canadians to use the Sirius app http://www.ianbell.com/2009/03/31/iphone-skype-for-canada-a-workaround/
@thejohnmalkovich Thejohn, Brandon is VERY knowledgeable and knows more about this than most of us. He is a recognized reporter, I have read alot of his news, and always is very informative.
I have a question for you, DID YOU CALL THE NUMBER??? Call the friggin number, get the facts and post your reply. If you don’t do this, you are obviously trying to bash the stock with your hostile nonsense…
Anyway, I just called and confirmed that they DO offer the app and premium service internationally.. There was NO hold and someone answered immediately! Great Customer service also. I said I was from the UK and they offered to sign me up over the phone! SO, either check for yourself or quite with the FUD and bashing, it makes you look desperate and stupid…
The app is 100% NOT available in Canada and it does not look like we will be getting it anytime soon. This sucks and I am pissed if they can get it in Korea!