By Brandon Matthews
It would seem to be so simple. Pull up the most popular iPhone and iPod applications on Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes and you will see among other things, a list of the most popular free downloaded apps. Several weeks ago, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) introduced a music application that rocketed to the top spot of the most popular free downloads in both the overall and music categories. In just two weeks we learned that the Sirius XM application had been downloaded over 1 million times. Since that time, the data would indicate that the popularity of the Sirius XM has fallen to the number 62 overall free app and the number 4 free music app. It seems simple, but it’s not.
People on various message boards are using this data to attempt to denigrate the app and Sirius XM Radio. Others are making the false assumption that the lower rankings translate into the app not making a difference to Sirius XM’s bottom line going forward. Nothing could be further from the truth.
A giant clue stems from the fact that most of the free downloaded apps happen to be free gaming applications. Did all of these games that have been available for some time suddenly regain popularity of immense proportions? Absolutely not. No my friends, the naysayers are missing the obvious. Enter the iPhone, 3GS…
The Sirius XM app made its debut at the exact time that Apple’s latest smart phone offering began hitting the market. In fact, the new iPhone 3GS is so popular, that Apple admits it can’t keep up with demand. The iPhone is the ultimate yuppie product. I believe that most of the new 3GS sales will include many 3G users upgrading to the 3GS. One of the first things these existing long term iPhone users will do is download all of the free apps that they became accustomed to, such as Pandora. In other words, there will be a lot, and I mean a LOT of repeat downloads by existing users, which skews the current free app data.
This is important when considering that Sirius XM seems to be slipping in the rankings. Just because an app like Pandora is now holding the top spot does not necessarily translate into more actual users. In fact, the new 3GS is more likely to have sparked such a high demand for existing free apps that had been in use previously by the same iPhone user, that the very fact that Sirius XM iPhone app remains in the top iTunes applications as a brand new application is nothing short of miraculous. This should suggest to any reasonable, thinking person that the Sirius XM iPhone application remains highly popular… possibly more so than some are giving it credit for.
Position: Long SIRI
A few days ago Bodie on Octane said on air that it had passed the 1.5 million mark. So it is definately still being downloaded at a decent rate.
wow. Another 500k in another 2 weeks. Not bad. Looks like they might settle in around at least 250k a month. That would be 3 million downloads a year. Thats great. Id say thats a big success.
Who cares how many download it. I want to know how many are ponying up and how much money we are making on the app.
When comparing SiriusXM download to Pandora downloads, one must consider that Sirius
I’m sure I’ll be corrected if I am wrong but you don’t have to reload apps if you get the 3GS, you just sync it. I lover sirius, have 3 subscriptions and sadly I’m a stockholder, but the app is already erased from my iphone. I waited for that dumb app forever, downloaded it the first day and erased it the second. They want you to pay $3 extra with no Howard, that’s horrible.
When comparing SiriusXM download to Pandora downloads, one must consider that one siriusXM download translated into at least $3 of incremental revenue each month. In order for Pandora to reach that same amount of revenue, they would need many more users. Also, Sirius does not compete with any of the companies offering the most popular iphone downloads, so the comparison is irrelevant.
If these are repeat downloads from the same Apple Store account then they shouldn’t be counted again, unless Apple is cheating with double counts.
Non-the-less, It’s been a month and the SiriusXM app is blowing everyone else out of the water. The one thing to consider, and hope for is that it will garner new subscriptions. It has to cater to people who want more than just music, otherwise, Pandora and the like will remain more popular.
Position: Long SIRI
JamesPS……the real question is …..how many? That is how many of the 1.5 miilion downloads actually converted to said $3 per month sub
That is the 40 cent question
This is laughable man. Duplicate downloads of apps are really changing the overall numbers? No they are not.
Their current fall to #62 isnt a bad thing? How could it be better than being #1?
“Just because an app like Pandora is now holding the top spot does not necessarily translate into more actual users.”
Yes it does, there is no question about it. With the current positioning it probably means thousands more downloads per day than Sirius XM.
Since Sirius XM launched their 7 day free trial on the iPhone lots of people right away took advantage of the free 7 days and now the 7 days is over for those people. One can not expect the same volume of people to log on for the 7 day free trial in subsequent weeks.
It really doesn’t matter (at least not to me) that another service (or services) have more FREE downloads now than Sirius XM. What matters is how many of Sirius XM’s freebies turn into paid subscriptions, and how much money this translates to for Sirius XM.
By the way, Sirius XM has been taking out large ads in New York City Newspapers for the free app, and last night I saw a Sirius XM ad in the Times Square area of New York on the side of a phone booth.
Time will tell, but I think these free apps will lead to money, so let’s not get too hung up on how many free listeners there are compared to other services.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again. Sirius could EASILY steal back the thunder from Pandora if it added a similar free feature to their iphone app. All Sirius would have to do is allow people to create their own radio stations for free and they’d shoot back up in the download standings.
Again, it’s about attracting the eyes and ears. Not EVERYONE is going to upgrade to the pay service, but by providing this feature and allowing people to create their own radio stations on Sirius for free…they’ll bring millions more under the Sirius tent.
Anyone who downloaded the Sirius app would have the same trial period for the pay content(although I think it should be more than a week) but would get the other feature for free. So those that didn’t become Sirius subs after the trial period could still go on listening to the free create your own radio station feature much like Pandora. And like Pandora, they could add limited commercials and skip limits to entice people to upgrade to the FULL Sirius experience.
BUT…and heres the BIG difference. UNLIKE Pandora, Sirius could target listeners with personalized ads. For instance. Lets say some one creates a radio station for a certain artist or genre of music, Sirius could then play ads promoting their pay service if that artist is going to be playing LIVE. Sirius would have a captive audience to promote their product and all the great live unique content they have. The possibilities are endless.
Sirius can EASILY mimic what Pandora offers and do it BETTER….while Pandora and it’s ilk could NEVER replicate all the live, unique content that Sirius offers.
I think it’s a win win for Sirius if they add this feature. It’s not about giving something for FREE. It’s about attracting new eyes and ears. Because as Pandora is forced to pay out more and more of it’s revenue to royalty fees, they’ll be adding more and more commercials and charging fees. People will begin to look elsewhere.
But why wait for them? Sirius could take a page out of Sun Tzu’s Art of War and make a move NOW. Do what Pandora does, only BETTER….with a built in upgrade path. Once people see the benefit and all the advantages Sirius has, many of these “Free” people will upgrade. The most important thing is to get as MANY eyes and ears to your product as possible. It’s business 101.
By offering this feature, and going head to head with Pandora….they’d beat Pandora at their own game sooner rather than later.
Cheers.
Why can’t Pandora and Sirius both exist and each make money? In New York City, many department stores used to be across the street or within a block from each other (Macy’s, Gimbels, Korvettes, B. Altman, etc.) That attracted people to the area. If you didn’t find everything you wanted in one store, you went to one or more of the others. These stores intentionally located themselves near each other because people came to that one area for shopping specifically because they knew they could find something there. In that same light, the more people develop the habit of listening to radio on their iPhones, the better. If people listen to Pandora, they may very well become Sirius XM listeners at some point – simply because they can get things on Sirius XM they can not get on Pandora.
I started off as a Sirius subscriber, and now I listen to both Sirius and Pandora. I personally get tired of listening to only the artists I have chosen on Pandora after a while. At those times I do listen to Pandora, I end up switching to Sirius because I want to hear stuff I am not familiar with, and want the novelty of not constantly hearing stuff I expect to hear. Much of Pandora is limited and predictable.
In the end, many Pandora listeners on computers and iPhones may become Sirius XM paid subscribers – even if they listen to Pandora.
I did download the app. Was already a Sirius subscriber, and with some difficulty, activated the internet access. I now enjoy the app immensely. I should point out, the app works much better on my wife’s 3GS than it does on my antique 3G. She can use her car’s mp3 connector and receive stable streaming, mine is a bit less proficient. However, I use mine mostly for workouts, and there it works fine. I think we’ll all be much more comfortable when we see the actual number of activations. 30% would be huge, but I;ll be happy with 15%. That would still be 225,000 new activations. How many companies, especially those trading as a penny stock, show that kind of real growth?
When you upgrade from a 3G to a 3GS, you don’t have to re-download the app! It just transfers all your apps, music and data. So the argument that Pandora is seeing a surge is from the fact that it is free, popular-not from re-buys.
All Sirius has to do is get Howard Stern on board, and their problems are solved, for now, at least.
they need to somehow offer a Pandora eqivalent-people want to program.
Great Article Brandon and here is my own example of that. I have XM in my car and waited for download to happen then added best of sirius (for only $2) so i could listen to howard on alternate side parking days but dont think he is that funny its only to pass the time quickly. I also added the internet subscription so now i pay 19 dollars per month all in. When the British open was on i watched the coverage on tv and muted it so i could listen to british analysts on sirius cover it the right way. Wow i was thrilled. the american analysts were boring and would not shut up about tiger woods. the english announcers were witty, clever, and just more enjoyable. I just cant wait for baseball to arrive. Keep up the great work. Long Sirius 117,000 shares avg to .42
I agree with SteveSirius 100% and I think the same way whenever people discuss pandora/sirius rankings.. I’ll be happy if 200 million new people subscribe to pandora as long as I get my 2 million. So it’s not an issue at all and in my opinion whoever brings it up is doing so with personal agenda.
My neighbour is making 2 million dollars a year does not make me poor if I’m getting my $100K salary and occasional bonuses.
Hey. SiriusXM just emailed me some long ass questionnaire to fill out since I tried their iphone app. So I for shits n’ giggles I filled it out.
The interesting thing was that one of the last questions was, “Would you be willing to pay an additional fee of $2.99 to listen to Howard Stern on your iphone?”
Hmm?
Anyway, thought I’d share.
Cheers.
Can you forward that to me…bmatthews@satwaves.com
Hey Brandon, I just forwarded the email to you. Just in case, and for anyone else who is interested this is the link: http://www.demographix.com/surveys/9C43-EN4K/WVZZNK2M/?MR00070
I’m a stockholder and former sirius subscriber, and believe me, I’d love to see this company successful and profitable. But, they release this “free” app, that requires a monthly fee. And don’t be fooled, it’s not $2.99 a month, it is an additional $2.99 to existing subscribers and you have to have certain plans. It is all so freaking complicated. And, the app doesn’t support live sports which is one of the main things I liked about Sirius when I did have it. People are simply not going to pay $12-$14 per month for radio… period. When I first heard of a la carte pricing I thought they were on to something. But, they have cleverly put restrictions on every freaking plan so that you can’t really get what you want… (isn’t that a song??). And, I have tried and I didn’t get what I needed either…
So, in the end if they can’t make a la carte for the iphone app and make the pricing plans a little less complex (is it sirius, or xm, or sirius xm???) they will continue to have millions of downloads with a fraction activating their subscriptions… my .02
I clicked on the link you gave for the questionnaire. I filled it out giving a reason for not subscribing other than because Howard Stern was not included. Then I clicked on the link again, filled out the questinnaire, and said that because Howard Stern was not included that was the reason for my not taking out a paid subscription. In neither case did it ask “Would you be willing to pay an additional fee of $2.99 to listen to Howard Stern on your iphone?
So?????????????????????????@Bubba-Ho-Tep
Steve. I can’t believe I actually took the stupid survey again just to find that question you said wasn’t there. I KNEW I wasn’t going crazy, because I copied it for you and will paste it here:
If Howard Stern was available on the SIRIUS XM app on your iPhone/iPod Touch, how likely would you be to pay an extra $2.99/month to listen?
Definitely would pay
Probably would pay
May or may not pay
Probably would not pay
Definitely would not pay
@bubba-ho-tep
BUBBA: WHAT WAS YOUR ANSWER??????????????????
Lol. Well…Of course I said yes. If anything just to underscore that A LOT of people were upset about his omission from the app.
Personally I think if Howard is playing hardball it really sucks, because although I know he is a big reason Sirius caught up with XM in subs back in the day….he really did get paid an INSANE amount of money. I know it’s business, but Howard has to know how Sirius has suffered these last few years. He praises Sirius every time he is on David Letterman, and tells about how happy he is….so you’d think he’d try to help Sirius more and take one for the team during these tough times.
Of course I’m speculating. I don’t know the true circumstances. But something stinks, that he wasn’t even at least included as part of the free trial after downloading the app.
Personally, I’d pay…I just wish they had worked this all out BEFORE the app was released. God knows they had enough time.
I’m preparing for the worst this quarter. Of course I would love for it to be a BIG surprise…but I am not going to count on it. In fact, just for my sanity, I am hunkering down for a sloooooow climb up over the next year rather than the huge POP everybody wants.
If being a long since 2005 has taught me anything, it’s that patience is indeed a virtue! Lol.
Peace.
Already been addressed but I don’t care if we’re #1 as long as the app is improving our top and bottom line. That is all that matters.
I hear ya. I mentioned in a post the other day that such a move would shoot Sirius back up to #1. That was meant more as a figurative statement than a literal one. I am VERY passionate about how I feel such a move would help expose Sirius to more eyes and ears, and that is the most important thing. Wether it stays at #1 or not doesn’t really matter. Heck, when it was first announced, the app exploded but was constantly below the number one spot held by a free game where you throw crumpled pieces of paper into a trash can!! Lol. I mean it’s kinda strange. People just love downloading free stuff, so you have to take these standings with a grain of salt.
I just want to see this happen because I KNOW in my gut it would help bring more people under the Sirius “tent” so to speak. And as I say, the more ears the better. It’s a numbers game. I am convinced that adding this feature would increase it’s exposure to the downloading crowd and that is a good thing. I believe it would also make the Sirius platform that much better because it’d appeal to a larger more diverse crowd. By costing Sirius very little to implement, it’s a win win as far as I’m concerned. Therefore even if only SOME people upgrade because of it, it would improve the top and bottom line. Period.
More exposure. More ears. More word of mouth. More is better.
Plus, people that are already paying subscribers to Sirius will appreciate the addition of this feature. It’ll make the service that much better and more versatile. And just like it may add paying subs, I think it will help KEEP paying subs who may have been thinking about canceling their subscriptions. People who on the fence, and thinking about going over to Pandora because it was free although limited, may be convinced to stay a Sirius subscriber. I am sure there are a lot of people for financial or various reasons may be contemplating this…and such a move might help make them realize that Sirius is indeed worth it.
I’m just saying.
Hey, I have a fun random question for anyone that follows Sirius AND solar stocks. Which do you think will happen FIRST?….that Sirius will reach a $1 or that ESLR (evergreen solar) will get back to $8 a share? Just curious which you think more likely to happen first.
here’s my beef w/ SXM. I have 2 subs, called today to activite a 3rd for the car that is equiped w/ XM. They said their ‘system is not set up” to offer the multi-radio discount. So instead they apologized saying they would love to have the subscription but could not do it. I asked, can’t you just call the other (I called both Sirius and XM to ask about the discount) and tell them I already have a subscription and they should charge me the discounted price?. They said they couldn’t do that.
I was a little pissed. Here’s another example of SXM’s lack of customer service and stupidty. I didn’t get the added subscription because now I’m just ticked off.
How many other people will not subscribe because of their lack of customer service????
Hate to break it to you bubba. But your stern question isnt there. 100 percent sure. If fact, if it is, ill blow you.
Dude. I CUT and PASTED it AS is above. So I have NO idea why you missed it. I noticed that some questions caused pop ups that revealed more questions depending on what multiple choice button you clicked on. So maybe it was buried within certain choices? I dunno. I’m not going to go thru the whole survey for a third time to find it again. But it was there BOTH times I took the survey….so I don’t know why you missed it.
that question absolutely was on the survey. I just took it and commented about it in the friday thread as the weekend thread hadn’t been created yet.
Still waiting for our/your $1 a share ,maybe next week after Microsoft buys SIRI out?
@relmor2003
It only appears when you click on the button indicating you didn’t subscribe because Stern wasn’t available. Then the question pops up.
Which of the following reason(s) best describe why you have not signed up for the SIRIUS XM service on your iPhone/iPod Touch after the free trial? Please check all that apply.
Costs too much/not worth the money
Can’t afford it
Don’t believe you should have to pay for music on the internet
You can get free music from other apps
Didn’t like the way the app functioned
Howard Stern was not available
Didn’t like the sound quality
Didn’t get good reception
App didn’t give you enough control over your music
Other
I did get SIRIUS XM on my iPhone/iPod Touch
If Howard Stern was available on the SIRIUS XM app on your iPhone/iPod Touch, how likely would you be to pay an extra $2.99/month to listen?
Definitely would pay
Probably would pay
May or may not pay
Probably would not pay
Definitely would not pay
Although you have a good point that tons of the free apps are games, you are completely wrong on the whole repeat downloads idea. Buying a new iPhone does not require a repeat download.
A copy of your old “setup” (apps, phone numbers, text and call history, etc gets loaded on your new phone during the setup.
Brandon,
I just read thru all the posts and your article is right on the money. I downloaded the app and use it alot around the farm. Also my company’s network has blocked Sirius online listening but I can still listen thru my Iphone.
Now a question. One of the posts mentioned Microsoft possibly purchasing Sirius. I heard this a couple times last week. Both times on CNBC. Is there any truth to this rumor?
you make an excellent point!