Comments on: Sirius XM Continues To Mock It’s Harshest Critics

By: On The Street’s Sirius Bashing – Will They Never Learn? | Stocks and Sectors

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 18:53:16 +0000

[...] the clicks. Here at Satwaves, Brandon Matthews has already posted many of the slam pieces that Mad Money “star” Jim Cramer has published. I was going to blow it off and let it be, but it really was just too much and needed to be [...]

By: TheStreet.com Misrepresents Sirius XM Yet Again - Satwaves

TheStreet.com Misrepresents Sirius XM Yet Again - Satwaves — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:38:00 +0000

By: sxminvestor

sxminvestor — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:10:02 +0000

I was very disappointed to hear that the long-term penertration rate will only reach in the mid .60’s per Mel. I thought 90% or more was probable at some point. This business model is stil broken and I’m disgusted. Unless retail picks up considerably or the OEM conversion rate & churn improve significably, growth will be anemic.

By: Neal Barkett

Neal Barkett — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:01:28 +0000

Great Piece Brandon! I have a question that you or one of the staff or maybe cos1000 or RAF can shed some light on. With the merger 2 companies became one, how does that relate to the dilution of shares? With the growing number of shares how much of those shares can be attributed to Sirius + XM? In other words are the shares watered down as much as it seems by just looking at the growing number of shares?

By: brad

brad — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:01:21 +0000

Sirius will end up with a loss of subscribers this year–without looking up the numbers, somewhere in the range of minus 400,000-500,000. This is based on car sales of roughly 10.5 million.

So, the question is, how many subscribers can Sirius gain on car sales of 11.5 million?

2010 positive factors compared to 2009:
1. Higher penetration rate
2. SkyDock sales
3. Less market confusion/better marketing
4. CPO program

What do you think the number of subscriber additions for 2010 will be? 300K? 500K?

Either way, the number is not great. Hence, Mel’s estimate of revenue increase of “mid to high” single digits.

Obviously there will continue to be cuts in costs, hence, Mels guidance of a 20% gain in EBITDA. So, let’s say EBITDA is 600-700 million next year, what does that mean for the share price?

Another 20-30% from here? .74? .80?

If that’s the case, the impending reverse split will seriously drag on the share price. So, next question, what to do from here? Near-term prospects (1 year) don’t seem positive. Long-term could be better, but who knows.

I’d be interested in other’s thoughts on Sirius growth potential. And not just how it’s going to be a “steamroller.” Thanks.