By Whitney a.k.a. “The Duke”
If you read the f
inancial writers or analysts, SIRI is like some drunken sailor lurching from one crisis to another. Solve one crisis and another one immediately pops up.
Sixteen months ago, people were counting down the days until SIRI got a delisting notice. Then the NAZ suspended the delisting rules. Twelve months ago, we were reading that BK was coming on Feb. 15th because SIRI could not pay its bonds due on that date. Enter John Malone and no BK. The BK argument lingered for some people because there was debt due in May and December. May came and went and no BK. Same is about to happen with this month.
The next problem was that Mel’s contract was coming up for renewal. If he left, SIRI was doomed. Mel signed a new contract extension and guys like Scott Rothbort in “Worst Run Companies Deserved Their Spots” 10/26/09 labeled SIRI one of the worst run companies in America. Of course, then Comcast acquires a controlling interest in NBC and the worry is that Mel is going to leave and SIRI is doomed. This begs the question of why Comcast would want one of the WORST CEO’s in America. If Mel stays SIRI is doomed and if he leaves SIRI is doomed…which way do you want to play it?
Don’t forget delisting is back on the table. You just need to forget that SIRI has another 6 month appeal after the initial March 15th Deadline.
The NEW crisis is Stern’s contract, which is not up for a year. If you watched Bloomberg, Stern brought 2M listeners with him and not a single one has left in four years. Also, if Stern leaves all 2M are going with him. However, if Mel signs him to an extension it will be at such a high price that SIRI is doomed to BK. Sign him or not, SIRI is dead meat.
Let’s not forget the new tech, as yet unknown, that is going to kill satellite radio but not hurt traditional radio. The iPod, the iPhone, Pandora, Sync and a few others were going to kill SIRI and yet the carcass lives on.
I read about a new problem that SIRI is facing in 2010, that I will share with you. Some financial wizard speculated that 2010 will be a year of heavy sunspots that will interfere with the SIRI satellites, causing a mass exodus of subs. I kid you not! So I send this genius an email and congratulated him on his finding of SUPER SMART SUNSPOTS. You see these sunspots are going to attack the SIRI sats but leave the Direct TV and DISH sats alone because no one is predicting any problem f< !DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC “-//IETF//DTD HTML 2.0//EN”>
OK
The server encountered an internal error or
misconfiguration and was unable to complete
your request.
Please contact the server administrator,
support@supportwebsite.com and inform them of the time the error occurred,
and anything you might have done that may have
caused the error.
More information about this error may be available
in the server error log.
Apache Server at satwaves.com Port 80
Best post ever Duke.
I fear we are doomed to have invested in a successful company, that is unless it does quite well.
Sunspots that target only SIRIUS XM satellites…lol The good thing about that is the doom sayer critics are getting deparate in coming up with reasons for SIRIUS XM’s demise. Guess what folks, it’s not happening and the quarterly increasing FCF that will occur througout 2010 and the years to follow will certainly put the lie to all these critics. Real nice article, Duke that prtty much sums up the situation.
I love it! Great article by “The Duke”. Hope the sunspots don’t hurt my golf game – I’m only three putting six times a round now!
Don’t those 3 putts always seem to come when putting for birdie.
Like I always say “birdie to bogey” again
MEL’S STRATEGY IS ROPE A DOPE. THEY JUST CANT GIVE SIRI THE KNOCK OUT PUNCH.
DUKE,
I have not gotten a straight answer about the six month extension. Can they or can they not get this extension?
Stern will get more because his contract was just for SIRI. Now with XM his numbers are higher. Perhaps SIRI needs hire a survey company to determine who listens to whom
You forgot to mention the end of the world in Dec. 2010…It was predicted by the Mayans long ago and they actually mentioned Sirius–You realize how many subs we will lose and how bad the churn rate will be?
Both Liberty and Sirius Vice Pres CEO’s are going to me announcing something on Tuesday. Watch for them to announce sirius is going to take the steps needed to go Global by using Liberty’s acquisitions of Worldspace’s Satellite Radio. Watch for a real short jump in the bankrupt Worldspace stock. Once it goes up. Get out. Sirius on the other hand will rise .10 cents this week with that news and will raise even more toward the end of the year. BIG BIG MOVES for Sirius. Global Sat Radio? insane. they will become a Monopoly. all types of immigrant’s in America will consider sirius radio. And once you are able to get radio programing from another country in your car… watch out. And vis versa over sea’s for Americans. Global Sirius XM…. imagine the strength they will have. As far as stock price…. with so many damn shard out there….. will prob barley hit 3 dollars within the next 3 years.