By Brandon Matthews
The news is just hitting the wires. Moody’s Investors Service has followed Standard & Poor’s with substantial upgrades to Sirius XM Radio’s (Nasdaq:SIRI) credit ratings:
(Reuters) Feb 1 – Sirius XM: Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Sirius XM Radio Inc.’s (Sirius XM) Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to Caa1 from Ca, Probability of Default Rating (PDR) to B3 from Caa3, and speculative-grade liquidity rating to SGL-2 from SGL-3. Associated debt ratings were upgraded as detailed below.
Headlines now read:
- Moody’s Cites Continued Expected Improvement In Sirius’ Operating Results
- Moody’s Boosts Sirius XM’s SGL Rtg To SGL-2 From SGL-3
- Moody’s Boosts Sirius XM’s PDR To B3 From Caa3
- Moody’s Boosts Sirius XM’s CFR To Caa1 From CaMoody’s: About $2.3B Of Sirius XM Debt Instruments Affected
Sirius XM shares have enjoyed a substantial run-up in recent weeks on analyst and credit upgrades. Most notably were a Bank of America / Merrill Lynch report on Sirius XM credit and last week’s upgrade by S & P.
Another great piece of news! Is Sirius running on all cylinders or what? Wow!
Bm, you probably will attack me on this like you seem to do when anybody differs from your viewpoints but owell, you still want a R/S despite a high probably that SIRI can reach $2 near Dec 2010? With the current upgrades that occured and the SP reflecting SIRI movement OVER $1, why would a R/S be any good now? I believe it was voted on by shareholders as a LAST RESORT to delisting, that clearly isn’t going to happen so why beat the drum about R/S this and R/S that?
7 billion shares dude….7 billion
so what, c has 28.48B according to yahoo.
hd 1.7b
msft 8.88B
intc 5.52B
mcd 1.08B
ge 10.66B
it’s just a number at the end of the day. but if you split it, yes it effects me as i can’t write as many calls. the stock will drop temporarily.. dont want that…
i hope mel blows us away at the cc, and i hope he does it soon.
7 billion shares was not the reason a R/S was voted upon. It was to avoid delisting. If SIRI avoids delisting which seems to be possible in the next few days. then the whole reasoning behind a R/S seems null and void. My question to you is why are you so aggressive towards pushing a R/S? Seeing SIRI climb naturally is great thing for us longs and you continue to put fear of the R/S out there. Handle the 7 billion outstanding shares at another point in time by other means.
Shares outstanding (billions)
General Electric
GE 10.6
Microsoft
MSFT 8.8
Pfizer
PFE 8.1
Cisco Systems
CSCO 6
AT&T
T 6.0
Intel
INTC 5.5
Exxon Mobil
XO 5
Oracle
ORCL 5
Citigroup
C 28.5
Bank of America
BAC 8.7
From what I understand all the analysts use 6.5 bil shares in valuation not 7 Bil.
Weren’t you the guy Brandon that said it makes no difference in valuation whether its 80 cents at 7 Bil shares or 8 dollars at 700 mil shares? Why does the billions of shares bother you then?
And what exactly makes your preference right and Mel’s preference wrong on this reverse split issue?
Oof…we’re beating a dead horse here, guys. I, for one, agree with Brandon’s R/S reasoning. Most of the arguments against it seem to highlight ignorance/naivety. One short pro-R/S argument: Increase institutional interest and ability to invest the big $$$. We little folk, as much as we’d like to give ourselves credit, can only do so much to move the price per share. It’s the big guys who are responsible for the big movements…bring them en masse now that they don’t have much incentive to short the he!! out of SIRI and you’ll love what can happen.
Personally I can’t wait for the Sirius Blackberry app! Verizon Baby!!!!
More good news! I’ll take it!
I am confused however that with every upgrade announcement the SP goes up. Isn’t this all based on the same Sirius XM fundementals? These upgrades are all based on the same info, so why does it keep going up?
Shouldn’t the first upgrade announcment have the largest impact on SP, with others having a deminnishing impact?
I’m not complaining, just want to understand.
Stock perception, more upgrades means more interest in coverage by more respected stock analysts and companies. The fundamentals may be the same but the company has more merit in the eyes of investors. The stock is no longer a dog rather a race horse in this case. I believe Brandon made a reference to Ford as an example. Ford was a dog for a while but is now a prized company in the eyes of investors because they did not take gov’t money and survived just fine. Siri/xm came back from the abyss, survived all the bitch slapping from everyone and is now about to rub thier nose in thier messy mistake.
v.l., do you think the stock price will shoot up as much as $4.00 by the end of 2010? I know stranger things have happened but that is really a high price! I would certainly welcome a $4.00 price anytime this year.
This will depend on a ton of things that include at least:
1.siri performance
2. Howard Stern contract
3. siri innovation
4. auto market
5. economy
6.overall market sentiment and siri perceprtion in particular
7.company upgrades
8.individual analysts
9. media
I would not rule this out but would not depend on it either. They have a powerful business model, practically no competiion and synergies with Liberty Media and their empire. All these factors allow to conclude that today siri valuation should be at $13B, which is about $2 share. $4 share is not too far away versus $20 and $40 in case of an r/s, which is improbable to achieve in one year.
Auto sales up, 11.23 million for December. I think the auto sales part of the equation should come through.
Analyst equity upgrades usually occur shortly after credit upgrades…that’s what I am looking for now…things just keep getting better!!
Up .03 to .91 in aftermarket trading
.09 cents away from 1.00, I think we accelerate up from here.
Good news. But you have to ask, how can these agencies make changes before the earnings are released. What a joke they are.
I think we may have the perfect storm this week to get over $1.00 far enough that we can hold for the 10 days.
The Moody’s upgrade was huge.
Now we get a few more upgrades on price target to 1.25 or more.
Blackberry App to be released by end of week.
Overall market snapback from the pounding for 7 days.
I think we could see 1.10 by end of the week.
I can’t tell you how long I’ve waited for the kind of news that’s been streaming in over the past several weeks. Things are really shaping up nicely, and I have to give thanks to Brandon and everyone at satwaves for posting so many great articles these last few years. They’ve really helped me keep my faith during some of the darkest hours!
I have been waiting for five years. Two years since I took a huge position because the head of the FCC said the merger would be approved by December 31, 2007. One year since, out of desperation, and with the company on the verge of bankruptcy, I bought shares between 6-12 cents. I would like to think I made a smart move, but I know I just got lucky, very lucky.
Who Dat!
.09 more cents means we have a chance at not being delisted.
what about this negative senario:
MMs waiting to dump all their shares on retailers who will bid up to $1 to prevent the r/s. Once all the buy orders are in above $1 placed there by the retailers, the MMs dump all their shares, price plummets, and a r/s is then announced sending it even lower. After the r/s, MMs, using the ton of money they made selling to the retailers who bid it above $1 to prevent the merger, then buy up all these lower priced shares from the retailers who are pissed and angry over the r/s…and who have by now lost twice as much money.
or, the positive:
we get above $1. MMs say, forget the $5 share price floor, let’s start buying Sirius up to $5 so all the MMs who couldn’t buy below $5 can now start buying sending the price up to $8-10 at which time the MMs who bought just above $1 start to dump their shares and those of us retailers who help strong and patiently also sell ours at $8 and enjoy the fruits of our patients.
Think either of these will happen????
let’s try it…everyone put a bid in at $1.10 for a few shares each and keep placing it until we get to above $1
Disclosure: I will be selling 1/4 my holdings at $8 and holding the rest for when dividends begin!!
I think Sirius will do a reverse in December 2010 just to get the stock in the 7.50 – 10.00 range.
No reverse may be required if they can keep the momentum rolling for the next 2 weeks I think Liberty may be behind buying back nasty debt XM sold when mmerger closed in Aug 2008 – it’s possible.
I think this is the plan, show continued growth in reveenue, subs and profit while costs continue to drop and car market rebounds for next 3+ quarters & get stock to $1.50 – $ 2.00 before any reverse.
We now have several catalysts that are helping to drive the price. I would love to see Mel surprise the market with an early earnings report (2nd week of Feb.) which would more then likely help propel this stock higher.
I wonder if they low balled the 100 million in free cash flow so they could still have an option for a catalyst at earnings. My theory is they’re trying to get the share price as close to 1.00 now in order to ensure it goes well above this when they report earnings. …It’s also my hope that Mel announces that he’s buying a large amount, himself, to prove his commitment to the company. He did it just after the merger and could do it again.
Yet more good news
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100202-711611.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesAsia
UPDATE: US January Auto Sales Improve; Ford Sales Increase 24%
TO ALL RETAIL INVESTERS THIS IS IT DO NOT SELL YOUR SHARES TO THESE CORRUPT HOUSES ITS OUR TIME, A LONG<LONG TIME
common $1 !!
…or will the MMs start dumping soon ???
it’s been a long road; think, 1 year ago today, we were out in the cold, shivering, worrying day by day, we’d wake up and find, poof, no more siri; now, a year later, siri is indeed like a racehorse; kind of scary, but more than welcome, all the same.
You say you would like 4.. this year.LOOK AT DTG .60 to 26.00 in 1 year
No dollar today
…hope my theory of MMs dumpging is not correct. We’ll see tomorrow