By Brandon Matthews
Wunderlich Securities Equity Analyst, Matthew Harrigan, issued an updated report this morning on Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) on the heels of the auto results issued yesterday. As in his previous report, Harrigan remains extremely bullish on Sirius XM’s long term business model. In the report, Harrigan maintains his Hold opinion and $1.00 near term price target on near term economic concerns, yet suggests longer term price targets of $1.85 and $3.50 respectively as auto sales increase. Harrigan writes:
“SIRIUS can be objectively valued. SIRI is now a company with 18.77 mm subs and $550+ mm in 2010E EBITDA. It can be readily valued on a DCF basis using our S&P 500 linked cost of equity approach. Uncertainty in forward operating results can be captured by looking at U.S. vehicle sales and market share variations for consumer penetration. Our $1 price target simply reflects the current stagnant U.S. economy. A recovery to a 12 mm vehicle run rate implies a near $1.85 target, while a probably unrealistic recovery to 15 mm generates a $3.50 target.“
Harrigan also took note of the exceptional performance turned in by Ford (NYSE: F). Harrigan notes in his summary; “Encouragingly, strong SIRI partner Ford, with a 70%+ penetration rate, generated a 43.4% increase in sales.”
Harrigan feels that the idea of Sirius XM being delisted is “absurd” given its “$3.9 Billion market capitalization, or $6.5 Billion inclusive of the Liberty position and a very prominent consumer brand. The analyst believes that Sirius XM will be successful in receiving a new sixth month extension.
Also noted, were potential synergies between Liberty Capital (Nasdaq: LCAPA) and Sirius XM with its Worldspace assets following comments from Liberty CEO Greg Maffei yesterday.
Position Long SIRI
Update: Matt Harrigan has agreed to be our special guest tonight on Satwaves Radio. The show will air at 9:00 p.m. EST on Blogtalkradio.
A lot of good that does us now, Brandon. Why no mention of their report two days ago which was explioted by the shorts to destroy our $1 run?
sirius did not go down because of any downgrade…it went down on projected SAAR rates which if you google SAAR, you will see that as early as Feb 25, JD Power was calling for a SAAR rate of only 8 million, with others predicting a drop to five month lows.
All of these SAAR articles were well below sirius guidance. Unfortunately, many chose to look only at Matt’s downgrade, without checking any oem news for themselves.
The fact is, this guy did his homework at the time, that you or I did not do.
Irrelevant… All this cat had to do was wait ONE DAY to see the actual numbers. He tried to be a hero and instead made himself and Wundersuck look really bad.
Wrong Brandon. The Shorts went long then shorted the hell out of us on day 8, period!
I’m just glad he’s got it right now…I suppose though he didn’t consult with Edmunds who had it about right on their projections as of 2/25/10:
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/edmundscom-forecasts-february-auto-sales,1180565,edmundscom-forecasts-february-auto-sales.shtml
Wrong!!!!
We will agree to disagree- the writing is on the wall-
Brandon hopefully bow you ca see why u was a little upset the other day. It really was not factual news. Anything could be cosidered news, it is up to you and I to interpret it. This guy is unbeleivable. I guess that a lot of people lost some money but probably more stand to gain now. I would just like you to tell me why you think that he choose to release that downgrade the day before auto numbers came out, and do you think that it os a little suspicious. Please respond and great article, with facts.
Listen…
Matt is a good guy..the kind of guy you’d like to have a drink with…
If you google SAAR and look for news, you will see that there were many articles predicting the SAAR rate would come in as low as 8 million units.
I was not only concerned myself, but I agreed with Matt’s position at the time.He had already explained in his report previously that he was bullish on SIRI and was concerned only with short term economic problems such as oem weakness and high unemployment..
Hopefully, this report has clarified his position, which has been blown way out of proportion by media groups that selectivey left out the bullish view and 1.00 maintained price target..
That’s not the freaking point, Brandon! When you are in a position of potential significant influence you do not open your mount in speculation when you know the real numbers will be out the follow day, not to mention how disruptive such a speculation could be to a company looking to avoid a reverse split or even avoid the hassle of an extension. Possibly you want the reverse split so much that you are happy this has occurred. Possibly your place on Satwaves is some how distorting your judgement and has you more interested in making friends than calling it like it is. EXTREMELY DISSAPPOINTING BRANDON.
That was the ‘freaking’ point, cubfantexas. Brandon agreed with Matt’s position at the time and was definitely “calling it like it is”. If he has a concern based on information available at the time, I’d much rather know it’s there than be kept in the dark. Brandon’s job isn’t to pump up the stock blindly.
If he didn’t report on speculation and instead just regurgitated the already-released numbers, there would be no reason to tune into Satwaves. This speculation helps shed light on what’s happening at any given moment with SIRI. On that note, you’re also overestimating the sphere of any one person’s influence as well, cubfan.
You’ll see in two weeks that March 15 doesn’t matter, and Sirius XM won’t perform a reverse split.
Now go take some deep breaths and come back when you’ve calmed down.
Really Steve!! Really!!
STEVE…that’s funny.
Analysis in a responsible fashion. Yes.
Speculation in a timely fashion. Sure.
This was neither. End of story.
“calm down”
Steve, “you never open your mouth unless you know what the shot is”
you need to look up the the term “fiduciary responsibility”
You also need to look up the comic associated with John Gabriel’s Greater Internet Theory.
This is about as productive as having a yelling match with a 2-year-old.
Thank you and not to be a pain but my real question is the timing of the release. I completley understand that there is no way we can predict the future and can only go off of educated guesses. Why though, one day before actual results and 80% through regaining compliance. Imagine if he waited one day, siri managed to hold $1 and on the tenth day the auto news came out. We would have cleared it. While may not have influenced the sp, in some peoples minds, i think that it was the catalyst or the strw that broke the camels back…
So my one and only question on this is …
Is the timing suspicious thanks in advance and keep up the good work
Brandon,
To say that Matt is a good guy… is disrispectful to all of siri fans. May be he is in some other environment but not in what he is paid for. As far as it relates to his business and his duties, Matt is not a good guy. To be more correct, he lacks the most important thing that all of us should appreciate – PROFESSIONALISM. A true professional would never ever have come out with such ridiculous statements without SOLID data. All he had was projections and rumors. He could have waited just one day to get the true picture from real reports. He CHOSE NOT TO. In my view, this is a clear indication of lack of professionalism, and I have zero respect for such folks. The same relates to wishy-washy David Bank who says one thing and does another. The guys that so far have made sense to me and have been consistent and correct are Tuna Amobi Standard and Poors and Jim Goss of Barrington Research. I will repeat this as long as it is necessary to be finally heard – Sirius XM has a uniquely sound business model, and the company will do extremely well in 2010 and in the following years unless there is some force major that will affect the entire economy again. Their busniness model is tied firmly to auto industry. Automobiles are an indispensable part of our life like football and baseball, and will remain so for foreseeable future. Only those who dispute that can claim otherwise. There should be no doubt in any reasonable mind that auto industry is and will continue turning around and siri will benefit from that accordingly. America will be producing 12,13,14,15,16,17 and more million cars a year and will remain a leading auto market in the world. Our return to auto prosperity is simply a matter of time. Those who have no time and cannot wait another year or so should forget about this stock and trade something else. Sirus XM is a unique company with zero competition in satellite radio and quite manageable competition from others. Pandoras and the like will not survive because of their not sustainable business. Pandora music via internet in a car is no different from terrestrial radio that all those who got the taste of real content due to siri hate. The future is definitely with sirius xm and they will prove in 2010.
Brandon,
There are hundreds of good guys on wall street that would be nice to have a drink with but it does NOT mean that they are not crooked and behind some of the shenanigans.
Say what you will but this was a planned attack
Matt Harrigan has agreed to be our guest on tonights Satwaves Radio show…9 pm EST.
the show is on blogtalkradio.com/satwavesradio
How can you say this Jerkoff had NOTHING to do with our fall from grace? That’s almost as bad as when you said the de-listing notice was a non-issue.
If any forum members or SIRI shareholders does have a beer with this guy, he sure as Hell better be buying!
P.S.
No one twisted this guys arm for analysis.
Maybe he should have reported on auto sales after they were released instead of “Googleing” it.
i can’t believe what i’m reading. this guy completely sabotaged a multi-billion dollar co. and investors lost money. period. wunderlich has resources and alleged experience and they report from a google and bm bought hook line and sinker. my my my.
I think though that the timing of his release is questionable and also doesn’t reflect well on him anyways… I mean, he knows that it COULD have had an impact on SIRI staying above $1 and all he had to do was wait until the auto numbers were out and come out with a stronger statement instead of saying one thing and then having to make another statement the day after the jobs number.
BM, with regards to the numbers being as positive as they are, SIRIXM should rise to over $1 by the end of the week and stay over it for good. I feel confident that the dark days are our company will be put to rest as by the end of March.
Love the apology…. “Sorry for screwing the 10 day run to compliance by downgrading SIRI on week after upgrading SIRI because I expected auto #’s were going to suck. I was wrong. But I’m still keeping the downgrade anyway”.
yeah, real nice.
Our $1 price target simply reflects the current stagnant U.S. economy. A recovery to a 12 mm vehicle run rate implies a near $1.85 target, while a probably unrealistic recovery to 15 mm generates a $3.50 target.“
Harrigan also took note of the exceptional performance turned in by Ford (NYSE: F). Harrigan notes in his summary; “Encouragingly, strong SIRI partner Ford, with a 70%+ penetration rate, generated a 43.4% increase in sales.”
HAS THIS GUY MASTERED TALKING OUT OF BOTH SIDES OF HIS MOUTH?!
How is he going to blame a stagnant economy then turn around and acknowledge an increase in sales?
I’M PISSED.
The guy made a mistake, an error, screwed up or whatever you want to call it. It looks to me like he corrected it. Look at the great buying opportunity it gave you. I think Brandon is the only one here smart enough to know that you don’t burn any bridges that you may need to cross later. STFU and enjoy the ride back up.
Unbelievable. Wunderlich Securities just lost all credibility with me and, if I was looking, would not consider their advice–let alone services–from their dump then pump the very next day. MORONS>
If your smart enough to downgrade to a “hold” position based on “current SAAR #’s”, you most defiantly are smart enough to be able to wait 24 hours for CURRENT SAARS #’s. If that’s the case then NAB isn’t behind the past/current bear raids. Ive seen so many more complex and unlikely conspiracy theory’s that have been supported. This timing on this is so blatant ESPECIALLY with the numbers being released A DAY AFTER the DOWNGRADE. Don’t insult any ones intelligence here.
I agree…no way any sensible honest man/woman of integrity can say there is a legitimate reason to issue such a negative speculative report 24 hours before the ACTUAL report comes out.
…however, satwaves is smart enough to spin this to positive. smart or deceptive??? hmmm
In most jobs if you make that big of a “screw up” as some call it, you lose your job. Here he became a hero to those who were shorting it. Come on, the day before the numbers you try to predict them. There should be a quiet period for journalism before big events. Bottom line he tried to be a “superman” and turned out to be the “fall guy”. Glad he will be on the air tonight hopefully explaining the situation.
BM I am a firm believer that if people are trading the stock at this point it is quite possible to miss out on a huge opportunity. p.s. I am holding all my shares!!!
Brandon Matthews says:
March 1, 2010 at 1:55 PM
The auto sales news comes at the same time each month. The timing has nothing to do with the stock price. Mr. Harringan remains bullish on Sirius XM, and stated that he would have upgraded siri today if not for the auto news.
Bm care to comment on this. What is going on here it seams Like you really like this guy, but Come on. If thatvwas true, why did he not upgrade today??? Please advise
“stated that he would have upgraded siri today if not for the auto news” …problem is, he did this before the news even came out!
sorry to say, I too have minimal if any remaining respect for him and now even Satwaves is almost dead to me (don’t want to burn any bridges so needed to say ‘almost’)
We’ll see tonight if Brandon is legitimate or not
And on the show tonight I really hope that somebody questions him. Not just looking intothe future but asking Jim about the past couple of days and why this all took place. Please do bot let him off of the hook. I understand that you do not want to burn any bridges, but we need to really know of this is a bridge that we will use in the future, or should we burn it so that the enemy doesn’t use it against us!?
Sorry about the Mia spelling, the iPhone sometimes has a mind of it’s own
Brandon:
Come on! He posted a downgrade based on his opinion without waiting for the actual numbers to be analyzed. This allowed all of our favorite semi-media outlets to spin their own stories which just fueld the fear that Siri would not hit guidance! This analyst could have easily waited till the real numbers were released and then released his suggestions. Lets call it as it is and admit that he made a gamble on the wrong horse. He was wrong and is trying to wipe the mud from his face. You can not blame any investor screaming their frustration regarding manipulation when yourself have become a contributor on a movie reflecting the history of manipulation on this stock.
Definition of analyst:
An analyst studies companies and other entities to arrive at the estimate of their financial value. It is normally done by analyzing financial reports, aided by follow-up interviews with company representatives and industry experts. Often, specific “coverage” is assigned, specifying a number of companies or industries on which an analyst is supposed to provide regular assessment and updates. Writing reports or notes expressing opinions is always a part of “sell-side” (brokerage) analyst job and is often not required for “buy-side” (investment firms) analysts. Traditionally, analysts use fundamental analysis principles but technical chart analysis and tactical evaluation of the market environment are also routine. Often at the end of the assessment of analyzed securities, an analyst would provide a rating recommending an investment action, e.g. to buy, sell, or hold the security.
The analysts obtain information by studying public records and filings by the company, as well as by participating in public conference calls where they can ask direct questions to the management. Additional information can be also received in small group or one-on-one meetings with senior members of management teams. However in many markets such information gathering became difficult and potentially illegal due to legislatory changes brought upon by corporate scandals in the early ’00s. One example is Regulation FD (Fair Disclosure) in the United States. Many other developed countries also adopted similar rules.
Financial analysts are often employed by mutual and pension funds, hedge funds, securities firms, banks, insurance companies, and other businesses, helping these companies or their clients make investment decisions. Financial analysts employed in commercial lending perform “balance sheet analysis,” examining the audited financial statements and corollary data in order to assess lending risks. In a stock brokerage house or in an investment bank, they read company financial statements and analyze commodity prices, sales, costs, expenses, and tax rates in order to determine a company’s value and project future earnings. In any of these various institutions, the analyst often meets with company officials to gain a better insight into a company’s prospects and to determine the company’s managerial effectiveness. Usually, financial analysts study an entire industry, assessing current trends in business practices, products, and industry competition. They must keep abreast of new regulations or policies that may affect the industry, as well as monitor the economy to determine its effect on earnings.
HE SHOULD HAVE WAITED UNTIL THE ACTUAL INFORMATION WAS PRESENTED, INPUTED THOSE NUMBERS INTO HIS SPREADS AND DETERMINE AN ACTUAL GRADE DUE TO HARD FACTS. SNOW FALLING MY ASS!!!!!!!!!!
Keep hope alive! I feel vindicated on my comment on your Reverse split nonsense.
The problem now is that the stock price didn’t go under $1 with the JD Powers report (which was a positive article) as you claim. The problem is that the stock crashed after Wunderlich downgraded.
Wunderlich could have at least waited for the actual Auto report and at the same time give the PPS opportunity to hit $1 on Monday and Tuesday. Blown call!
So here is my question for him tonight. If the market sees a correlation between auto sales and the price of SIRI, how does that hold up for the past few years before the recession?
While those of us with visions of sugar plums dancing in our head may dream of world media domination and $70.00 shares. Our bread and butter is the sales figure each month.
…please…poor judgement, should have, an oversight…come on…the downgrade based on auto figures not released yet was an outright intent to through the stock below $1 and knowing it would plumet lower from there from stop loss and investor jitters. Planned, intent, corruption, greed. The writter and Wunderlich who approved the news release need to held accountable as they maliciouly caused many people to loose great $ for their own gain….who is fooling who…
Ford 2009 end of year projection for 2010 SAAR
US 11.5-12.5M units – Europe 13.5-14.5M units – Ford is off to a great start and expects to meet their goals. Now what does Steve say about his target? The current activities seem to be setting up for Ford to actually exceed their goals. I would say the $1.50 (at least) is justified based upon actuals which appear to be exceeding projections for 1st qtr. Conservative analysis fine – but be fact driven with stated risks. That is better for investors and analysis quality. No more knee jerk rumor mongering. Heck use the Farmers Almanac next time – just reference it.
I love his price target of 3.50 longer term, but that is a reach and he would be better off holding off on that type of opinion for now and stick with the 1.85 if 12M vehicles. He would get taken more seriously.
I would love to know SIRI shares Harrigan’s friends and family stocked up on after he caused the stock to crash!
I would love to know how many SIRI shares Harrigan’s friends and family stocked up on after he caused the stock to crash!
definition of an analyst, a weatherman there clueless
now the shareholders have to play there game for another 180 days then they’ll do it again downgrade!! what a major freakin disappointment i’m telling you these clowns need jail time a cell with Bernieand bubba!!!
wow matthews i’ve never seen such a negitive board ever!! what a freakin blunder. You people never stop f ing with this company. You clowns lost alot of money and confidence with the little guy. sad greedy bastards. I hope you asses sleep well!! You should really try to make this right instead of kissing this jerk from wunderlichs ASS!!
you people are no better than Cramer, i haven’t listened or watched that ass since he started f ing with siriusxm, your going to lose too!! people are pissed strength in numbers!!
Are you kidding me? What a joke? Issues a lie (oh I mean an opinion)which reports nothing but negative things and a downgrade a day before the numbers are to be released instead of waiting for the real numbers to come out.
There is no telling how many cheap shares this guy allowed his friends to pick up at others expense. He should be investigated.
Did anyone listen to last night’s call? This guy states that he is pleased with Q4 calls but downgraded his opinion. He states that he was shocked on how well EBIDA was since he thought marketing would have brought it down. Still, brings a downgrade! Am I missing something here! He clearly focked up on the downgrade. This was intentional! I am sorry, Bradon, but you even sound convinced on the call with your tone in questining!!!!
Hey Brandon,I give you credit for posting all of the comments ,no matter how bad they bash you. I can’t forgive you for covering Harrigans ass.
I Agree. He could have easily waited till the real numbers were released and then released his numbers with facts. But can someone explain to me why we had such a BIG increse in short positions BEFORE Matt’s downgrade ?
I don’t really believe Wunderlich initiated the 8th day slide, rather, jumped on (possibly via google’n it!) the low SAAR forecast(s) bandwagon.
This will really explain well what happened. Very, very relevant to SIRI right now…
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-12-2009/jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt–2