By Brandon Matthews
Preliminary March auto sales data is giving Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) investors reason to celebrate, as good news continues to flow surrounding the company. According to Edmunds.com, the SAAR rate for March is now running at an astonishing 13.2 million vehicles. Edmunds attributes the spike to successful incentive plans that seem to be attracting car buyers whom have been sidelined during the recession.
The numbers are higher than anyone has anticipated. JD Power is reporting that through the first eleven selling days of March, 883,300 vehicles were sold. To put this in perspective, that number already exceeds the total monthly numbers posted in January and February of this year. March has a total of 26 selling days, which could mean that monthly auto sales could reach between 1.5 -2 million vehicles.
JD Power is projecting an annual rate of 12.2 million units, which by far exceeds analyst projections when forecasting Sirius XM Radio’s growth. Earlier this month, Wunderlich Securities Analyst Matt Harrigan suggested that Sirius XM shares would be valued at $1.85 based on a 12 million unit run rate, more than double SIRI’s current price.
Satwaves will present a live exclusive interview with Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com on next week’s Satwaves Radio show, who will offer listeners a first look at Edmunds’ monthly forecasts, which are historically the most accurate forecasts in the industry.
Satwaves Radio can be heard live every Wednesday night at 9:00PM Eastern. Previous episodes of the show can also be streamed and downloaded as an Mp3 file or via iTunes. Further information about Satwaves Radio can be found at the Satwaves Radio Home Page.
Satwaves Radio Show Number 34 – Wednesday, March 24th at 9:00PM Eastern
Position: Long SIRI
Stick to SIRI don’t sell don’t give up just buy more and wait, I know you might be worried about the recent downturn I have been following this stock since it was below 0.10$ I can tell you it’s one of the most volatile stocks but in the long run you will always be a winner and the stock will finish much higher this year.
Brandon,
Do you really see this stock more than doubling on a 12 million unit run rate? I know thats what Mr Harrigan said but it seems like the news just keeps getting better and better and the stock just stays stale.
I know their is still the issue of delisting but with all the steps siriusXm has made, The debt refinance, The positive sub growth this stock is still getting abused. When do we finally see it head up north to stay? Are we years from that? Months?
Lastly, if the unit run rate increases this means that subs should increase as well? If thats the case then this should mean that the 500k mel stated might be a lowball as to what the real sub numbers might be?
Any thoughts are appreciated.
I think there will be a tremendous push on this stock upward. Sirius just released a SEC filing describing what they did with the proceeds of the $800M for debt management – The did what they said – managed it well and reduced costs. They will not be delisted. So liguidity is going up- sales are going up, cash flow is going up, S&P technicals are “Bullish”. S&P target is $1.50 as of this morning (with the delisting issue considered). These are facts – I say get on board this train is pulling out of the station.
I hope you are right. I just bought 60,000 shares. The last three stocks I had a good feeling in my gut about but didn’t buy went through the roof. I am not letting that happen again. Let it ride!
I have a few shares myself – some are pretty old and way out of the current money. Bought on the way down and bought on the way back up. I think SIRI is a perfect contrarian buy – out of favor but rebuilding into a good company – buy long waiting for it to come back into favor. I think that there have been so many true business negatives in the recent past (2 years) that the institutional analysts are afraid of it- perfect. They cannot say what they feel – so they are jumpey and the negatives out weigh the positives. So while they hide under their desks – the entrepenuer moves in for a kill. The big guys will buy when they see the trend only pushing it up – we are trying to catch the bottom and we did. So – I like you are going let it ride and I am not going to blink. Talley ho!
I know I.m beating a dead horse, or should I say my dead march calls ;-{ , in stating the obvious, based on the below, Wunderlich Securities Analyst Matt Harrigan ( the paid off crook ) could have and should have waited one more day for the actual SAAR data!!
what an ASS hole,,,
,,,”JD Power is projecting an annual rate of 12.2 million units, which by far exceeds analyst projections when forecasting Sirius XM Radio’s growth. Earlier this month, suggested that Sirius XM shares would be valued at $1.85 based on a 12 million unit run rate, more than double SIRI’s current price.”,,,
great, now I’m pissed again!
sorry phil,,, you can’t imagine how pissed off i am, my worthless 145 mar $1 calls aren’t helping me today!
i did manage to sell 55 of them for a nice profit a few weeks ago, before that F’N ASS hole Matt Harrigan helped to bring SIRI down,,,
any way, we should see the sp move up after 2:pm today when the march options are a done deal and the nas-50 buying starts up, we’ll see
So now that the data is out where’s that upgrade from “our buddy” Matt? You know the “good guy” we should have a beer with…
Good ole Matt is having drinks with the guys who paid him
setting aside past frustrations
this is great news again and Satwaves is one of the very few places announcing it. Good job satwaves crew.
Now to get the rest of the media, stock holders who keep selling, and analysts to act accordingly
I agree with you guys. Matt should have waited before making commments that were seen as bearish without having data in front of him to back up his comments.
I really dont think this was all that caused siriusXm to go under a dollar that day though.
I left work friday with the feeling that monday or tuesday we would get slaughtered and sure enough thats what we got.
The truth though is that if Matts comments hurt the stock that much then the comments he made the next day (the bullish comments) should have brought it back up to near the range it was trading before. As we know, That didnt happen. 60,000 shares for one brave soul. Anyone else buying like this?
You bet if i have that kind of money i will do the same he did. Maybe 30.000 now and the others 30.000 next week. Good work “big”
SyNisT3R I just purchase more stocks of SIRI there is resistance at $0.82 and everyone should buy now and move the stock up and scare away all these shorts. As they say “No guts no glory”
Very well said. NO GUTS NO GLORY or NO PAIN NO GAIN. Good work “Tom”
Brandon,
I was having a problem finding anywhere that “JD Power is reporting that through the first eleven selling days of March, 883,300 vehicles were sold.” I believe that this is what JD Power expects to be sold for the entire month of March, 2010, not the first eleven days. If this is the case, 1.5M to 2M auto sales is just wishful thinking. Nevertheless it appears that the month of March will be great for siri. Most likely, auto comopanies will continue fighting for the customer and maintaining their incentives for at least another month, which is again very helpful to siri.
you are right…the article I got it from has been edited to correct the issue, albeit too late for me to do the same…
I think Sirius will never get the respect they deserve, until they actually start to retire debt , rather then just refinancing it, but you have to start somewhere and Sirius is blazing a path in the right direction. Gotta love Sirius
Matt Harrigan did a disservice to Sirius XM by putting his 25 cent stamp of approval on SIRI w/2 days to go to clear de-listing hurdle w/ the Nasdaq. But he has also created a buying opportunity. The press right now is jumping on the negative possible de-listing (which the Nasdaq would be cutting their own throats by not giving at least a 90 day extension) while as Brandon’s article points out that all systems are go for launch for this stock. Do I think Harrigan’s announcement was planned, most definitely! But he has created a buying opportunity. He basically handed us a lemon which that will make a sweet lemonade. I will be buying on Monday!!!
I definitely think Sirius is on a comeback. They might even slide down a bit but in the long we will be big, no, HUGE winners. Everyone else will be saying, “why didn ‘t I jump on that then?”
When my investment advisor wondered why I wanted to buy 60,000 shares I told him my basis and all the research I did. He had not be following Sirius nearly as close as me. I think I even turned him and he is an ultra conservative with investments. I expect him to buying in on monday. Haha. My gut told me to buy Ford a year ago and I totally blew it. My gut tells me to by Sirius now so I am all in. Come in boys! The water’s fine.
I battle with my full service broker all the time. Ford – caught the bottom; Sirius I can’t get enough of; Have a couple of others that caused him to cringe – I won. Most institutional brokers and analysts love contrarian philosphy but can’t recommend it. Only the risk takers “who do their own homework” will see the potential and act. I feel the management team at Sirius has learned their lessons “cash is king” – debt retirement is extremely important – Mel has fought and prevailed in getting some breathing room – when he starts retiring the debt – everyone with a buck to lend will be chasing him. If he doesn’t need it watch what the analysts will say then. Remember when GE had enough cash to liquidate everything and continue to operate – they were the darlings.
I do not Matt Harrigan is not powerful enough to really effect SIRI – other things were operating I am sure – just the timing was bad. Regardless, the trend of management is setting up for this to be a slow positive trend built on sound foundations.
Look at the trend over the last year – even with all of the BS – very impressive. Without the BS it ought to be really amazing. Can’t wait to see the day dividends enter the picture. It will be good – I’m still buying – especially as it is under $1.00 we have everyone’s focus to get it over it. How it gets there we will have to see.
I mean only jump in if you feel like swimming. I don’t want to encourage the weak of heart. I just think Sirius is too big to fail. Stock prices will be back up in a big way if not soon in the next year or too. Buy in and hold on for the ride if you’re looking to make a big play that you can brag about one day – or cry about. But I don’t think that will be the case. Rise of the Phoenix here we go.
auto sales good news for sirius. have you seen the price of the stock? doesn’t what news comes out the big boys will play with their toys (us).
Very good news. Stock was dipping a bit Friday but I expect it to rise with some of the latest positives coming out. However, I won’t be concerned if it drops next week. It’ll surge back soon if it does. I think there will be some nice surprises on the way for Sirius.
big e,
Nice surprises!!! Are you kidding? There have been SEVERAL nice surprises and it has gone nothing but down. The great thing is that the company is moving forward regardless of what Matt and cronies do. The sp will eventually catch up.
Steve,
It’s definitely rough waters to get through. No doubt. I still feel in the long run those that get in now and hang on for a wild ride will greatly benefit. I don’t see Sirius just folding and going away. They’ll adapt and pull through – and pull us along with them.
One thing I have learned – get all of your bad news clumped together and get it out as efficiently as you can. So if you are down – you go to the corner of the ring “rope a dope”, cover up and take the pummeling and conserve your energy. Then you fight your way out of the corner with more gusto than your opponent can handle. I think the “delisting” non-event is the last punch we have to take and Mel leads the way to start out of the corner. It will be tough for anyone to dispute to facts of fundamental performance.
This downturn was required to set the company up to long term perform – All Aboard – this train is leaving.
Note the S&P research as of 18 March – the tone is good. Need a couple of positive moves from within to let them know we are coming out of the corner now. I believe it will start at the delisting hearing. Perfect time to highlight performance and have it validated the the “authority.”
I think we are pulling for the “Thrilla ‘n Mannila”.
Where are you thinking the stock might get up to this year if we clear this hurdle? Just curious on what others are thinking.
Anyone else?
I think conservatively $1.50 – $1.60 probably low – S&P thinks $1.50. If Mel gets serious about debt reduction – who knows; everyone will sing the SIRIUS song. I just want the trend to continue to climb. The facts, as we have been presented, seem to support the steady climb (with up and downs) I am staying long.
I also think the big houses would like to say buy but are nervous – we will have to see.
Sirius is catching its breath and we are about to see a consistent move up. A lot of “one step back, two forward” kind of moves. Stay in the game and you might just win this one. If you don’t have the nerves for it it’s time to check out. Otherwise hang on. Don’t worry yourselves if you see ups and downs. In the bigger picture is moving in the right direction.