By Brandon Matthews
April has been an odd month when it comes to auto sales reporting. At this point last month, we had already received two updates on March auto sales. This month we have seen none, leaving many to wonder how good or bad April sales may be. The only clue thus far has been positive news from Edmunds.com that zero percent financing offers have contributed to good April numbers, especially for Toyota (NYSE:TM).
According to another Satwaves source, sales are off the charts across the board with Ford (NYSE:F) once again posting exceptional sales numbers, especially Taurus and Fusion sales. My source indicated that the SAAR rate could surpass the 14 million unit mark when the April sales numbers are reported. Such a number would dwarf Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ: SIRI) guidance of 10.5 million, as well as analyst estimates of just 11million units.
Edmunds.com has suggested that the success of zero percent financing offers could indicate that a significant thawing has occurred in the credit markets. This theory is supported by my source, whom indicates that used car sales are at record levels. I repeat, levels not seen since before and including the years prior to the recession taking hold.
The month is just two thirds completed, yet April auto data may bring with it a new vote of economic confidence as a result, that would spur job growth and indicate an accelerated recovery pace. By now, everyone should be aware of the Sirius XM’s attachment to an OEM recovery.
Still, the last week of March did show some weakness, and with ten days left in the current month anything can happen. If however the credit markets have eased, there will be little to slow down the tidal wave of car buyers that could flood dealer showrooms in the coming months. This would likely release pent up demand for new car purchases. Stay tuned…
Position Long SIRI
WHEN IS THAT PURCHASE OF STOCK FROM LIBERTY COMING OUT,,,,,MAYBE IT DID NOT HAPPEN.
AutoNation’s CEO was on CNBC this morning, saying sales were great, including Toyota’s.
I just hope that douche from Wunderlich doesn’t WRONGLY assume again two days before Sirius meets compliance that auto numbers are horrible. Lol. Of course auto numbers turned out to be great last time. He can make all the excuses he wants about how what he “heard” was different, and he had to get his article out yadda yadda yadda. But maybe the Fuckwad learned his lesson, and will actually WAIT until the ACTUAL numbers come out before he says ANYTHING. His report helped knock Sirius off it’s 10 day run last time, and all eyes are watching him this time to see if he’ll try and other douche-baggery.
WuWei,
Are you that naive to believe he learned his lesson? That was a planned and orchestrated attack. He did not care about creditability or reputation, it was all about making money. He had the perfect storm and took advantage of it.
An official announcement in the next couple of days on this possible good news would solidify Sirius Xms’ bid to make it over the $1.00 for ten days straight! Thanks for the good news Brandon.
We are all very passionate about this company, and there is no doubt in my mind that it WILL do very well for longs. At the same time, we should draw a clear line between “news” and “so called news” or rumors. What BM tells us above appears as “rumors” that may hurt many if they want to percieve it as “news”. Let us wait a few days as you suggest and hopefully get Great News. Such probability is very high because both the auto market and sirius xm are on a roll. What I also would like to see is news from siri about hitting 19M subscriber count in the next day or so. This piece of news would put to rest any attempts to lower the stock below $1.00 and may even run it to $1.50 or more within the next two or three weeks.
I’ll make my reply public to you in an article tomorrow…
hey brandon!!! Did you change something at your mobile satwaves website? I havent been able to go to m.satwaves.com in 3 days???
KEEP TRYING BRANDON,,KEEP TRYING.
Hey BM,
What do you think of JD Power’s estimate of 11.5 Million SAAR? They’re projecting just over 1M autos sold in April. Using the comparison to the first month of Q1 (January had about 700k sold), I’ll gladly take an additional 300k autos sold in the first month of Q2. If this trend keeps up and we gain and additional 300k subs for May and June, it could be an additional 1M cars sold in Q2 (and if we gained 170k subs w/ 1M less autos sold, it seems highly likely that we’d easily cross the 200k mark for Q2).
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=xprnw.20100422.LA91320&show_article=1
Thoughts?
Thanks!
Chris
Here is an April forecast from True Car
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-forecasts-april-auto-sales-and-incentives-spending-91806119.html
Ed Whitacre (CEO – General Motors) most recent comments strongly alluded to exceptional numbers (better than expected) to be released within coming weeks by General Motors. These comments were made in conjunction with paying back the government loan much earlier than anticipated. It seems GM is experiencing a resurgence – which can only be a major plus for Sirius XM, as well.
thnx for the article!
we are getting hit with a .04ct drop. We cant take days like this. We have just 3 days to go after today but if we have just two more days like today we are OUT.
Im starting to get a little nervous again
I want so badly for us to make it to 10 days. I go to church and prey for it everyday. but it’s sad. because to be honest i’m not going to be surprised when we all get let down again. This stock is manipulated so badly… that unless Mel pulls out some great news right now. We will not make it another day above $1.
A higher power is against us and SIRI. It makes me sick. I feel the same as a few other posters here. if we get to within 2 days at $1.01 or 1.03 even 1.04… expect a bad report t knock us under the $1 mark.
It makes me so mad that someone above is trying to knock down every share holder. It makes me so angry. I am never leaving or selling my shares in SIRI. I’m in it until the end. I have hate for the people hurting this stock price and I will stay with this ship all the way until the end.
If we make it through this storm… (and it’s going to be some storm over the next 3 business days) $2 and higher is without a doubt going to be reached be years end.
SIRI: LONG! BUY! HOLD!
so now you’re not posting all the comments?
disregard my last comment… wrong spot !!! OOPS
HERE WE GO AGAIN.
THE PRODUCT IS GOOD AS WELL AS THE COMPANY BUT THE STOCK SUCKS.
It hasn’t Sucked in over a year,retard. Have you even looked at the yearly chart…Up!Up!Up!
people. please.
chill.
All cylinders firing!!! Manipulators Beware!
I’ve got got good news coming down the pipe. HEHE
14m SAAR seems unrealistically optimistic to me. Of course, I would totally dig being wrong!!
the 14 mn is probably the April rate
Guess who said, “We are lowering our rating on SIRIUS XM Radio (SIRI) to Hold from Buy and maintaining a $1.00 target. SIRI’s results are tightly correlated with SAAR results for the new car market, and reports suggest that Tuesday’s February report could be as low as 9.6 mm.”
now if we go over 11.5million SAAR, this same company, if they desire to maintain what little respect they currently carry, will upgrade and increase their price targets.
who are they? _______________